Will Palestinians win their case for a state in 10 years?

The Palestinian-Israeli cause has dominated the 31st Arab League Summit in Algeria over the past few days, as Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit anticipated that the Palestinians would win and reinstate their own state on the 1967 borders in 10 years.

“I am totally convinced that Palestine will win at the end and have its own Palestinian state” in case the Palestinians and Israelis adopted the two-state solution, he said in a press conference with Algerian Foreign Minister Ramatan Lamamra at the end of the summit in Algeria on Wednesday.

Aboul Gheit clarified that the current number of the Palestinian population is about 8 million people while the Israelis are approximately 7 million, and if the Palestinian population continues to increase over the next 10 years, they will be a majority against the Israelis and make a change in demography for the sake of the Palestinians.

“The number of the Palestinian population between the river and sea is about 8 million Palestinians. The Israelis are approximately 7 million Israelis. [So] the whole region has about 15 million, and we could have to wait for ten more years, and with continuing the resistance, the number could reach 10 or 12 million [Palestinians],” he continued.

He added that as Israel says that it is a “democratic state,” then they should let the Palestinians vote in the case of the two-state solution scenario, and at that time there will be a Palestinian prime minister because they will be a majority.

“I wished that the Israeli Palestinians could have participated in yesterday's election strongly and win to get 15 seats in order to force this Israeli right wing to change its vision. […] We challenge you [Israel] in elections, as we are a majority. The time is with us,” Aboul Gheit said.

The Arab League chief’s comments were a response to a question on how the Arab League is exerting efforts to revive the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative amid indications of the comeback of former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power, as he is a staunch opponent to the two-state solution.

The Israeli legislative elections of the Knesset convened on November 1, and preliminary indications show the return of the far-right Likud Party led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks to ruin any attempt towards the two-state solution, unlike his rival, outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

In his speech at the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in September, Lapid announced his government’s support for the two-state solution, saying, “An agreement with the Palestinians based on two states for two peoples is the right thing for Israeli’s security, for Israeli’s economy, and for the future of our children. Peace is not a compromise. It is the most courageous decision we can make. Peace is not weakness. It embodies within it the entire night of human spirts.”

“Despite all the obstacles today, a large majority of Israelis support the vision of this two-state solution. I am one of them,” he added.

Factors serving two-state solution

There are several international factors enhancing the Palestinians’ right to establishing their state on the borders of 1967 with East Jerusalem is its capital, international relations expert Ayman Samir told Jusoor Post, expecting that the achievement of this goal could take longer than 10 years.

The first factor is the demography as the childbearing rate for the Palestinians are higher than the Israelis. “The number of the Palestinians within the borders of historical Palestine, starting from Ras Naqoura in the northern part to Rafah in the south and from the Jordanian River to the Mediterranean, will increase and the Palestinians will be the majority,” he said.

Another factor is the changing global order, with countries like Russia, China and Brazil increasing in power internationally, which does not serve US/Israeli interests, Samir said, adding, “Over the coming 50 years, the US hegemony will not continue in the form it has been during the past half century.”

American public opinion on the Palestinian-Israeli cause began to change, as an increasing number of Americans, especially on social media, have started asking why their country supports Israel as was observed during the Israeli attacks on Palestinians in 2020 and 2021, Samir said, noting that the current Congress, before the mid-term election, tends towards the Palestinians’ right to statehood, as the liberal wing in the Democratic Party supports the idea of the two-state solution.

In addition to this, the political expert said that European countries have started to understand the Palestinian cause and criticize Israel. “There are 21 European parliaments that recognized Palestine on the border of June 4, 1967, and the governments of Sweden and Greece recognized this Palestine state on the 1967 borders as well,” he said.

Samir also clarified that it is vital for the Palestinians to go again and again to the UN to obtain status as a member state and not only as a non-member observer state, which was granted to Palestine in 2012 by the UN General Assembly.

“Although the circumstances in 2022 and 2023 are not ready [for the Palestinians], we find that with the continuation [of efforts to establish a Palestinian state] at this pace, the future is tilting in favor of the Palestinians and for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to an Israeli state,” said Samir.